Impact of COVID on residential real estate in urban India

Authors:
Aakash Yogi,
Arati Satpute,
Anitha Urkude,
Dilip Krishna,
Naresh Reddy,
Sarag Surve.

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to explore the impact of COVID-19 on residential real estate for urban India. The study would cover the following

  • Residential Real Estate Valuation post COVID
  • COVID stabilization in metros
  • Public opinion on real estate investment

Project insights

Residential Real Estate Valuation post COVID:
In this article, analysis was conducted to check if there is a difference in valuation of properties before and after COVID and if the demand would still be there as it was before. The article covers the area wise statistical analysis using two sample T test for real estate pricing before and after COVID for each of the identified cities for the same areas.Residential Real Estate data for 2019 and 2020 was collected using different sources for different cities.

T-test is a type of inferential statistic used to determine if there is a significant difference between the means of two groups, which may be related to certain features. The t-test is one of many tests used for the purpose of hypothesis testing in statistics.

COVID stabilization in metros:
SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Removed) is a model that is widely used by various analysts to estimate the peak and recovery .Model focuses on establishing the SIR curve for different cities in India ((Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai)) to understand the impact of the Pandemic. The available data from government websites was used to train and test the model. With this data, actual beta (transmission rate), gamma (recovery rate) was estimated.This model focuses on establishing the COVID curve for different cities in India to see when the peak is expected to reach and when the curve would taper down or at which point the country would reach a stage of herd immunity.

Public opinion on real estate investment:
The survey was conducted to analyze the market sentiments about real estate in India after covid-19 pandemic. The targeted major cities were Mumbai, Pune, Delhi, Chennai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. People from these cities participated in the survey. Inferences were drawn based on the responses received.

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